An in-depth description: many figures, the most important phenomena represented by the figures, a comparison of two years, the current year at the forecast state (2017/18 vs 2018/19), sometimes multiple sources on the same data. The conclusions and decisions lie with the reader. Soy in the world: slight differences between the USDA source and the IGC source in terms of absolute values, alignment in certain trends:

• 18/19 production increased to approximately 370 million tons, +9.5%
• imports: same trend (approximately 150 million tons), but on lower rates of change (from 1 to 2% according to the source)
• exports: there are slight differences in the interpretation of the scenario. According to the USDA, a concerned party given the sanctions, exports rise to 157 million tons, +2%, whereas they remain stable at 150 million for the IGC
• crushing: the only source, the USDA, credits it with a significant increase, +9%, which brings the tonnage to 308 million
• final stocks: again, only the USDA raises them at the end of the campaign, to 108 million tons, with an increase rate of 14%.
  The soy countries: if the question were to indicate where soy is produced in the world, one could feel offended by its ease. It is more interesting to note the movements anticipated in the balances between the various countries, albeit remembering that it is an annual crop, therefore subject to the producers’ decisions. In this case, the USDA source will be joined by the COCERAL source, thus introducing the European Union, which we will examine later.
• The USA and Brazil continue to contend for the role of the world’s largest producer, at shares of approximately 35% each, amounting to 120 million tons
  The 18/19 campaign should be characterized by:
• a significant increase (+7%) in US production, which however is not enough to retain its share in the world, down to 34.6%
• a substantial stability in Brazilian production, with the effect of a significant reduction in the world share
  • an explosion in Argentine production with an increase of over 19 million tons, +50%, and relative increase in the world share to 15.4% against the previous 11.2%
• an insignificant Community production with respect to the world and the Community’s own needs, holding steady at less than 3 million tons, with small differences in mass among the sources that, however, coincide in the percentages.

Exports

The intervention of the sanctions in the US – China relationship has an effect on exports and stocks. The USDA source, although directly concerned, or perhaps precisely therefore, is the most accredited and its data reveals:

• a slight increase in exports, 2.5 million tons (+1.7%), which raises the total volume to 156 million tons
•  the confirmation of Brazil as the largest exporter with 75 million tons, which however is a reduction compared to the 17/18 campaign and also a reduction in the world share, down to 48%.
• the loss of almost 2 points for US exports, down to 36% corresponding to 56 million tons, almost 2 million tons less
• the extraordinary increase in movements from Argentina, almost quadrupled to 8 million tons, a growth that has brought its share from a little.